# 038. Water-to-binder ratio analysis

**Question:** How does observed water-to-binder ratio relate to strength?

## Result

The largest computed metric is 56.45 for (0.0, 0.3]; the smallest is 12.84 for (0.8, inf]. Metric: median_strength (MPa).

Binder definition is explicit; strength differences also reflect age and other mix variables.

![Water-to-binder ratio analysis](outputs/chart.png)

| ratio_band | samples | median_strength | mean_strength |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| (0.0, 0.3] | 118 | 56.45 | 55.11 |
| (0.3, 0.4] | 218 | 44.61 | 45.53 |
| (0.4, 0.5] | 291 | 34.24 | 34.18 |
| (0.5, 0.6] | 275 | 29.45 | 29.25 |
| (0.6, 0.8] | 117 | 19.69 | 19.71 |
| (0.8, inf] | 11 | 12.84 | 15.22 |

The chart shows 6 of 6 result rows; the table previews the first 6 in the analysis-defined order. [Download the full result table](outputs/results.csv). Numerical values are computed from the source; missing results stay unavailable.

## Method

Binder defined as cement plus slag plus fly ash, with fixed ratio bands.

The study uses shared source preparation and reusable statistical routines. Its specific transformations are in [analysis.py](analysis.py), and common model/evaluation code is in [portfolio/methods.py](../../portfolio/methods.py). The [notebook](analysis.ipynb) executes the study and displays the saved results.

## Decision and limitations

Compare like-for-like curing conditions before drawing formulation conclusions.

Laboratory observations do not certify a construction mix. Composition and curing conditions are confounded. Models require independent engineering validation and cannot replace strength testing. 

Related studies may share observations or holdouts. These are focused analytical studies, not independent replications or deployed business systems. Any model refinements informed by these results need new untouched evaluation data. No commercial impact is inferred from an association or backtest.

## Reproduce

From the repository root, after installing `requirements.txt`:

```powershell
python projects/038-water-to-binder-ratio-analysis/analysis.py
```

Source data are downloaded automatically if absent. Original archives are retained unchanged and checked by SHA-256. The cleaned cache normalizes column names; field-specific changes are visible in [data preparation](../../portfolio/data.py). Runtime evidence is in [receipt.json](outputs/receipt.json).

## Source

[Concrete Compressive Strength](https://archive.ics.uci.edu/dataset/165/concrete+compressive+strength), Yeh (1998). [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Source data are transformed and aggregated in this study. [Source provenance](../../data/provenance/concrete.json) and [prepared-data audit](../../data/provenance/concrete_prepared.json) record the downloaded files, field coverage and hashes.