THE RESULT
What the data shows
The largest computed metric is 184 for aug; the smallest is 1 for nov. Metric: records (Recorded observations).
The denominator is not days or land area at risk. More records do not alone establish a higher ignition probability.
| month | records | recorded hectares | median hectares |
|---|---|---|---|
| apr | 9 | 80.02 | 0 |
| aug | 184 | 2,297.99 | 0.545 |
| dec | 9 | 120 | 10.73 |
| feb | 20 | 125.5 | 0.55 |
| jan | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| jul | 32 | 459.8 | 1.035 |
| jun | 17 | 99.3 | 0 |
| mar | 54 | 235.3 | 0 |
| may | 2 | 38.48 | 19.24 |
| nov | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| oct | 15 | 99.57 | 0 |
| sep | 172 | 3,086.13 | 1.36 |
THE METHOD
From source to answer
Monthly counts, area totals and medians among the supplied fire observations.
The Python source exposes this study’s transformations. The complete project download includes shared preparation and evaluation routines.
THE NEXT DECISION
What follows from the finding
Use exposure and incident definitions before interpreting seasonal risk.
Where the conclusion stops
The sample consists of recorded fire observations, not all places and times at risk. Zero recorded area is not evidence of no ignition. No precise dates or event identifiers are supplied. This is not an emergency forecasting system.
Related studies may reuse observations or holdouts. These are historical analyses; associations and backtests do not demonstrate commercial impact. Further model tuning needs new, untouched evaluation data.