THE RESULT
What the data shows
The largest computed metric is 0.6473 for success; the smallest is 0.09162 for unknown. Metric: rate (Subscription share).
Unknown prior outcomes remain separate from failure. Historical success is an association, not a guarantee.
| poutcome | events | n | rate | wilson lower | wilson upper |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| failure | 618 | 4,901 | 0.1261 | 0.1171 | 0.1357 |
| other | 307 | 1,840 | 0.1668 | 0.1505 | 0.1846 |
| success | 978 | 1,511 | 0.6473 | 0.6228 | 0.6709 |
| unknown | 3,386 | 36,959 | 0.09162 | 0.08872 | 0.0946 |
THE METHOD
From source to answer
Response rates by recorded previous outcome.
The Python source exposes this study’s transformations. The complete project download includes shared preparation and evaluation routines.
THE NEXT DECISION
What follows from the finding
Review how prior engagement should enter a future campaign experiment.
Where the conclusion stops
Observational marketing records do not identify campaign uplift. Month and row order are not precise timestamps; repeated-client identifiers are unavailable. Models are research diagnostics, not financial eligibility or automated contact decisions.
Related studies may reuse observations or holdouts. These are historical analyses; associations and backtests do not demonstrate commercial impact. Further model tuning needs new, untouched evaluation data.